Next week the advance estimate of US Q2 GDP growth will be in the spotlight, alongside flash Markit PMIs, durable goods orders, and existing and new home sales; UK CBI factory orders and distributive trade surveys; and Eurozone, Japan and Australia flash PMIs. The ECB policy meeting is likely to signal monetary easing as soon as in September while Turkey’s central bank is seen cutting interest rates by 250bps. Investors will also react to the outcome of the Conservative leadership election.
Next week the US will be publishing the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP, with market forecasts suggesting economic growth was 1.8 percent, the weakest rate in two years. Other notable publications are flash Markit PMIs, durable goods orders, existing and new home sales, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and wholesale inventories.
Earnings updates from Amazon, Facebook, Intel and Caterpillar will also be keenly watched.
Elsewhere in America, important releases include: Canada wholesale sales and budget balance; Brazil current account; and Mexico foreign trade, retail trade and economic activity.
In the UK, all eyes will be on the outcome of the Conservative leadership election on Tuesday, with Boris Johnson seen as the favorite to succeed Theresa May as the new British Prime Minister. On the economic data front, the CBI will publish its gauge for industrial orders, retail sales and business optimism while UK Finance will release mortgage approvals for June.
Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB will most likely leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday while investors turn their attention to Mario Draghi’s press conference for any sign that would suggest the central bank will take action as soon as in September. Key economic data include the Eurozone flash Markit PMIs and consumer confidence, alongside Germany business climate, Spain balance of trade and Q2 unemployment, and Italyconsumer and manufacturing morale. The Central Bank of Turkey is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 250bps when it meets on Thursday, while central banks in Russia and Hungary are expected to leave their monetary policies unchanged.
In Japan, the Jibun Bank will be releasing its flash PMIs, providing an update on manufacturing and services activity during July. Other important data for Japan include: Tokyo inflation and leading economic index. In Australia, analysts are eyeing flash Commonwealth Bank PMIs for July. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea Q2 GDP growth and consumer confidence; China industrial profits; New Zealand, Thailandand Hong Kong trade balance figures; and Taiwan and Singapore unemployment rates.