NY Fed: Inflation expectation jumps to 4% for one-year-ahead
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released the Survey of Consumer Expectations for May on Monday, revealing that media one-year-ahead inflation expectation rose for the seventh consecutive month to a new series high of 4%, while the three-year horizon inflation expectation grew to 3.6%.
The consumer expectation is that price increases will occur across all sectors and impact all commodities: food, gas, medical care, house rents and college education. “Median inflation uncertainty […] increased sharply at the short- and medium-term horizons. Both measures are well above the levels observed before the outbreak of COVID-19,” the Fed report said.
In regards to the labor market, median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth rose to 2.5%, returning close to its pre-COVID-19 level. Meanwhile, median expected increases in household income grew to the highest level since January 2020.
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